The DNC and the Rust Belt: Why Milwaukee Matters for 2020
Wisconsin is a microcosm of America. In many ways, politically and culturally, it’s characterized by coexisting dichotomies. With a progressive in the governor’s mansion and a plurality of conservatives in the legislature, Wisconsin’s government is divided. So too is its electorate. While Madison and Milwaukee, the state’s largest metropolitan hubs, account for a substantially blue electorate, the rest of the state, for the most part, is purpley-red.
In 2016, the DNC perceived Wisconsin to be a solidly blue state. After all, the state had not gone red in over 30 years, since the 1984 election. No one saw any reason to worry about Wisconsin — Hillary Clinton led in the polls by an average of 6.5 percentage points.
Despite losing Wisconsin to Democratic opponent Bernie Sanders in a small landslide, Clinton still elected not to set foot in the state between its primary and the general election. Even though state election history and polling data indicated no reason for Hillary’s campaign to fret, it was quite unusual for the candidate to neglect the state altogether. In fact, she was the first major-party candidate to not campaign in the state since 1972.
That would ultimately be a costly mistake, as the state turned out for Trump by about a percentage point. Several factors can be attributed to Trump’s victory in Wisconsin, but surely a predominant cause was the drastic turnout drop in Milwaukee from previous years. Milwaukee turnout in 2016 was down from previous years by 7 whole percentage points. And it’s estimated that about two-thirds of that lost electorate would have voted for the Democratic candidate.
Although the 2016 results came as a shock to many, it’s arguable that Wisconsin hasn’t been solidly blue or red for the past several decades. Even though it had gone blue in every presidential election since 1984, many of those elections were won by incredibly thin margins. The elections of 2000 and 2004 were both won by less than a percentage point. So the question remains: does 2016 mean that Wisconsin is truly a red state, or did the 2016 election results represent a fluke attributable to poor foresight on the part of the DNC?
It’s true that Donald Trump had a hold on the plurality of Wisconsin voters in 2016, especially white working-class voters. However, in the most recent statewide election of 2018, Democrats took over the formerly Republican governor’s mansion, turning the state blue by a razor-thin margin. A Milwaukee native myself who votes absentee, I remember incessantly refreshing my browser at 2:00am, each refresh flipping the winner by a couple tenths of a percentage point. The toss-up was finally settled when 45,000 uncounted absentee ballots flooded in from Milwaukee County. Once those votes were counted, the race was called and Democrat Tony Evers was officially the Governor-Elect.
Former Republican Governor Scott Walker, who served for two terms, said in an interview that his loss should be a lesson to Trump in 2020: “to win, he’s going to have to improve his numbers in the suburbs. With the passion the opposition is going to have, he’s going to have to make some inroads.” The polls support Walker’s takeaway from 2018; the votes that tipped the balance toward the blue were those from a few key Milwaukee suburbs where demographics are dramatically shifting. In those counties, Walker’s share of votes dropped 12- 16 percentage points from previous elections.
In 2018, Milwaukee had the power to flip the state. And it can in 2020, too. But the Democratic party has to campaign aggressively to achieve that. That’s one of the reasons why the DNC chose Milwaukee as the site of the 2020 DNC convention. When Milwaukee was first announced as the DNC pick last March, Democratic Committee Chairman Tom Perez said that the 2020 convention would be a “discussion about how to retake our democracy in the city of Milwaukee.” Acknowledging that Rust Belt states can win elections, Perez closed by saying that “that discussion will not only ripple across Lake Michigan; it will ripple across the world.”
The 2020 election is conceived by many to be the most important presidential in history. In many ways, 2016 was a turning point: from normalcy to the unknown, from order to chaos, from partisanship to tribalism. In just a few years in the Oval Office, Trump has managed to transform the presidency, the nation, and America’s footing on the global stage. A second term could have irreparable effects. Democrats have the opportunity to prevent this grim fate, but they need to learn from their political mistakes of the past. They need to focus their efforts on the Rust Belt states that made the difference in 2016 and can make the difference in 2020. With the DNC zeroed-in on 2020, hopefully hindsight is 20/20 as well, so that Democrats are able to use it to their advantage come campaign time.
Sources
“Election 2016 - Wisconsin: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein.” RealClearPolitics.
Lerer, Lisa, and Reid J. Epstein. “These Are the Mistakes Democrats Don't Want to Repeat in 2020.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 18 July 2019.
Engel, Pamela. “Clinton Never Set Foot in Wisconsin - Then She Lost It, and It Helped Cost Her the Presidency.” Business Insider, Business Insider, 9 Nov. 2016.
“Wisconsin Election Results.” Wisconsin Presidential Election Voting History.
Bice, Daniel, and Mary Spicuzza. “With Governor's Race Deadlocked, Milwaukee Delivered for Evers with Late Absentee Ballots.” Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 7 Nov. 2018.
Bice et al.
Glauber, Bill, and Mary Spicuzza. “Milwaukee Wins Tight Race to Host the 2020 Democratic National Convention.” Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 12 Mar. 2019.