An Evolving Landscape: The Democratic Primary
The primary opened as a race between two established Democratic names: Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. Biden, the former vice president, and Sanders, the runner-up of the 2016 Democratic Primary, rode vast name recognition and pre-existing bases to early leads. It seemed as if the nomination would be theirs to lose. Going into the first debate, there was a second tier of candidates looking to make a bigger case for their presidential bids. Both Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and California Senator Kamala Harris needed strong debate performances against Sanders and Biden. From the debate, Harris and Warren both seemed to be standouts. Warren, in particular, continued her rise in the polls throughout the summer after a slew of bold policy proposals, reshuffling the framework of the Democratic primary in the process.
The primary emerged from the summer with a far different outlook for several candidates. Joe Biden has remained the most consistent in the polls, but is now facing a new leading opponent in Elizabeth Warren. Warren has stolen much of Bernie Sanders’ thunder as voters identifying as “very liberal” have started backing Warren in larger numbers. After establishing herself as a dangerous opponent to Biden, Kamala Harris’ campaign has all but collapsed, as she is stuck in the low to mid-single digits in national polling--a stark contrast from the weeks following the first debate. On a fluctuating rise since joining the race, Mayor Pete Buttigieg has become a legitimate challenger in the first two states to hold primaries, Iowa and New Hampshire, on top of a modest increase in national polling.
Perhaps the most significant trend since the summer has been Elizabeth Warren’s appeal as both a first and second choice. Among supporters of other candidates, Warren is the most considered as an alternative. A recent FiveThirtyEight-Ipsos poll found that 52.2% of polled Biden supporters were also considering Warren, much greater than the 39.2% of polled Biden supporters considering Sanders, 28.9% considering Harris, and 24.8% considering Buttigieg. This trend holds true for all of the other leading candidates: Warren is the most considered alternate choice. In another poll conducted in mid-September, Warren is the firm second choice of Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg and Harris supporters. Not only, then, is Warren the most considered candidate amongst other supporters, but she is in fact their top backup choice. The strength of Warren’s position comes not only from her general rise in the polls, but also in her popularity amongst supporters of other candidates, especially as the field inevitably narrows.
Warren’s strength amongst college-educated white voters coinciding with a fall in support for Kamala Harris among the same voter base may indicate that Harris supporters have jumped ship in favor of Warren. Initially, Harris excelled with college-educated white voters, especially at her peak following the first debate. But as Harris continued to have lackluster debate performances, and as Warren separated herself as a top tier candidate, college-educated white voters abandoned Harris for Warren. This trend may further benefit Warren in the Iowa Caucuses, in which candidates are eliminated if their support does not reach a particular threshold, allowing caucus-goers to then throw their support behind a new candidate. Not only will this benefit Warren with direct support in Iowa, but in the case that candidates fail to reach the threshold, Warren’s status as a common backup choice, as previously discussed, could translate to even greater support in the caucus. It is worth noting, however, that Joe Biden’s national numbers have not markedly declined, even as Warren’s have risen, pointing to a strong voter base behind Biden. Warren’s rise and popularity amongst supporters of smaller candidates along with Biden’s loyal and sizeable base set them apart as the two clear front-runners to win the nomination.
The first two states in the primary, Iowa and New Hampshire, both feature Joe Biden underperforming his national numbers, whereas Elizabeth Warren overperforms. Warren has an average lead, albeit narrow, in both states, while nationally she has a small deficit to Biden. Warren’s strong performance with white voters gives her a demographic advantage in these two states. Biden excels in polling among African American voters nationwide, and the lack of such a population in Iowa and New Hampshire harms his standing. Early state polling points to small windows for other candidates as well.
Pete Buttigieg performs particularly well in Iowa, in which his polling average puts him in third place, ahead of even Bernie Sanders. Considering Buttigieg’s strong fundraising, an impressive finish in Iowa could provide him with the momentum needed to progress. FiveThirtyEight’s Julia Azari indicates that a finish ahead of Biden in Iowa would be particularly momentous for Buttigieg’s campaign, as it could paint Buttigieg as the strongest candidate in the moderate lane of the Democratic Party. Mayor Pete also enjoys stronger than average numbers in New Hampshire, although he remains decidedly in fourth place behind Warren, Biden and Sanders. Buttigieg has demographic advantages in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Similarly to Warren, his support comes almost entirely from white voters. The key to Buttigieg capturing the nomination likely rests in his replacement of Biden as the preferred moderate candidate. While performing well in Iowa, Biden’s lack of decline nationally, as well as Buttigieg’s poor support amongst African American voters, will present challenges to Buttigieg’s campaign. More likely than Buttigieg making a surprise run is Bernie Sanders, who has steadily remained in the top-tier conversation.
Despite national stagnation and a decrease in support in early states, Bernie Sanders still maintains strong polling in New Hampshire. In wake of new endorsements by influential Congresswomen Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar, Ayanna Presley and Rashida Tlaib, along with unmatched fundraising, Sanders may be poised to make a comeback after a disappointing fall. He currently sits in fourth place in Iowa, closely trailing Pete Buttigieg, while maintaining a tight third place in New Hampshire at a 20% average, just behind Warren and Biden. Furthermore, Sanders has maintained a strong showing in Nevada, another early state, partially built upon his outstanding support among Latino voters. Nationally, recent polls have painted an improving picture for Sanders. Despite an unexpected heart attack and a surging Warren, Sanders has found his footing through a strong fourth debate and key endorsements, resulting in a recovery in the polls.
So how does each candidate triumph in the Democratic Primary? Joe Biden, the current frontrunner, needs to improve his lackluster fundraising after raising significantly less than Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg last quarter. Additionally, Biden needs to expand his appeal as an alternative amongst other supporters in order to grow his somewhat-stagnant base. Elizabeth Warren, the other leader, first and foremost needs to make greater inroads with minority voters. The perception that Biden is the most likely to defeat Donald Trump amongst the electorate is harmful to Warren; she would do well to convince voters of her electability. Bernie Sanders needs to regain support amongst voters identifying as “very liberal” and non-college educated white voters. Although this largely comprised Sanders’ base in the 2016 election, Warren has surpassed his numbers for both groups. Finally, Pete Buttigieg needs to garner support amongst minority voters, which he lacks, as well as establish himself as an alternative to Biden in order to usurp moderate support. Although unlikely, perhaps a minor candidate, such as Kamala Harris, Andrew Yang, Cory Booker or Amy Klobuchar may gain momentum with strong debate performances. Time is running out for these candidates, however, as their need for increased support grows by the hour, as demonstrated by Beto O’Rourke’s recent decision to suspend his campaign. In this ever-changing primary, time still remains for additional changes in support and momentum before the Iowa caucuses in February.
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