Long Time Coming: The Emergence of the Arab-Israeli Alliance
On March 27th 2022, top diplomatic representatives of the United States, Israel, and four Arab governments- Egypt, Morocco, Bahrain, and the UAE- convened in the Israeli municipality of Sdhe Boker for an unprecedented summit. A multitude of topics were discussed at the now-annual ‘Negev Summit’- ranging from the importance of American involvement in the region to the current conflict in Ukraine- but it was quickly made clear that the primary issue on the agenda was Iran. Israeli foreign minister Yair Lapid explained: This new architecture and shared capabilities we are building, intimidates and deters out common enemies- first and foremost Iran and its proxies.”
Since the breakdown of the 2002 Saudi Peace Initiative, little effort has been made by Arab states to achieve a comprehensive peace settlement with Israel. This trend commenced with Egypt and Jordan’s respective 1979 and 1994 peace agreements- with two traditionally key players agreeing to delay a final solution to the Arab-Israeli Conflict in exchange for much-needed economic aid. Meanwhile, the Gulf Arab States, comfortable in oil revenue and an American security blanket, were afforded the ability to carry on their facile solidarity with the Palestinians, by technically maintaining a state of war with Israel, and issuing customary condemnations at the Arab League- all the while omitting extensive covert contacts with the Jewish State.
Evidently, these Gulf States, along with a few other Arab governments, now feel that geopolitical interests necesitate open relations with Israel. An antagonistic Iran is the primary cause of this. Outfitted with the region’s largest armed forces and hegemonic ambitions, Iran is poised to become the preeminent military power in the Greater Middle East. It possesses the largest and most diverse ballistic missile arsenal in the region, commands well-armed proxy groups, and has the potential of developing a functional nuclear weapon within weeks . Militarily speaking, the underpopulated Gulf States stand no chance on their own.
Indeed, for these reasons, among others, Israel and the Gulf have embraced. In its rhetoric, Iran opposes the wholesale existence of Israel, while the Gulf States feel the pressure of Iranian encirclement in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Earlier this year, Iran demonstrated its striking capabilities when its Yemeni proxy group, the Houthis, fired several ballistic missiles at the Emirati city of Abu Dhabi .
These parallel anxieties have probably existed since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, though only recently have common interests taken form into a concrete alliance. The inauguration of the alliance occurred in the 2020 Abraham ‘Peace’ Accords, in which Israel normalized (or in a few cases re-normalized) relations with Bahrain, the UAE, Morocco, and Sudan. Since then, Israel has pledged economic investments, while the UAE, Morocco, and Bahrain are now seeking to acquire Israeli military technology, like the sought-after Iron Dome defense system.
Reminding themselves that the Palestinian issue remains unsolved, some participants of the Negev Summit allegedly “pressed” Israel on the need to establish a Palestinian State. Surely there were some elements of conviction in these statements, but it was understood by the attendees that business comes first.
Sources
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2020/8/31/the-uae-and-israel-a-dangerous-liaison/
https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=iran
https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/iran/
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/04/05/us-iran-nuclear-talks/
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/101999
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/uae-intercepts-ballistic-missilles-abu-dhabi-82432668